Total Portfolio

Projected total balance by age

Median
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What is it?

Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of independent retirement scenarios, each with a randomly varied sequence of annual market returns drawn from your expected return and volatility assumptions. The result is a probability distribution of outcomes rather than a single forecast.

Sequence of Returns Risk

Even if average returns are identical, when bad years occur matters enormously. A sharp downturn early in retirement forces larger withdrawals at depressed prices, permanently shrinking the portfolio. Monte Carlo captures this risk; a simple average-return projection does not.

Reading the Metrics

Success Rate
Percentage of simulations in which the portfolio lasted through the full retirement horizon without running out of money.
Median Final Balance (P50)
The middle outcome — half of all simulations ended above this value, half below.
Outcome Range (P10 – P90)
The band between the worst 10% and best 10% of simulations. A wide range signals high sensitivity to market volatility.

Raw Projections


              

Individual Optimizers vs. Full Strategy Optimization

The app offers individual optimizers for specific settings like withdrawal strategy, Social Security claiming age, and retirement age. Each finds what's optimal for that one setting in isolation—while fixing others to specific values.

However, retirement decisions interact with each other. For example, the best withdrawal strategy might differ depending on when you claim Social Security, or when you retire affects which Roth conversion strategy works best.

Full Strategy Optimization evaluates thousands of combinations simultaneously to find strategies where all settings work together optimally, not just individually. This ensures you're finding the best overall retirement plan, not just optimizing pieces in isolation.

Think of it like planning a vacation: the best flight, hotel, and restaurant chosen separately may not be conveniently co-located for the best sightseeing experience. The best trip coordinates all elements together.

Click "Run Full Optimization" to explore optimal strategies across all parameters.

Filing Status

State of Residence

Timeline

Account Entry

Enter totals by type, or the individual accounts.

Taxable / Brokerage

Tax Deferred

Tax Exempt

Account Balances

Projected balance by age

Employment Income

Social Security

Pension / Annuity / Passive

Windfall

Income

Annual income by source

Household Spending

Monthly Estimates

Monthly Total: $0 / mo → $0 / yr ↻ Recalculate

One-Time Expenses

Living Expenses and Taxes

Annual breakdown by category

Withdrawal Order

Annual Withdrawals

Distribution by account type

Tax Breakdown

Federal and state taxes by component

Fed Income Fed Cap Gains Fed Conversion State Income State Cap Gains State Conversion
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No data yet

Fill in your profile and financials to see your retirement cash flows visualized here.

Your Roth Conversion

Spouse Roth Conversion

Roth Conversions

Annual conversion amounts

Conversion Tax Paid
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Coming Soon

Your personalized retirement roadmap with milestones and action items will appear here.

These settings use sensible defaults — most users won't need to change them.

Inflation

Medicare / IRMAA

Pre-Medicare Health Insurance (ACA)

Social Security

Surplus Distribution from RMD

Monte Carlo

Volatility Drag

Legacy Transfer

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Should I include Medicare premiums in my Annual Spend?

Yes — include your Medicare premiums in your estimated Annual Spend. Prisma separately calculates and displays any IRMAA surcharges (income-related premium adjustments) on top of your living expenses, so only the surcharge amount appears as an additional line item. Your base Part B and Part D premiums should be part of your spending input.

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Do I need to connect my bank or brokerage accounts?

No. Prisma doesn't connect to financial institutions — there is nothing to link, authorize, or sync. You simply enter the numbers you want to model, such as account balances, expected spending, and ages, and round figures or estimates work fine. We don't ask for bank or brokerage logins, account or routing numbers, or your Social Security number.

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How is my data protected?

Your privacy is a top priority. Because Prisma doesn't link to your financial institutions, we hold no bank or brokerage credentials or account numbers — only the figures you choose to type in. All plan data is stored securely, is not sold or shared with third parties, and is used solely to power your retirement projections within Prisma. You can delete your plans or your entire account at any time.

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How is Employment Income used in planning?

Employment income applies only to people who haven't yet retired. It is added to your yearly income for every year from now until your Retirement Age, then stops automatically. If you are already retired, entering an employment income amount has no effect on the projection.

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How are contributions to retirement accounts modeled?

Each IRA and Roth account on the Accounts tab has an optional "Annual contribution" expander. Pretax contributions (IRA/401k) reduce your taxable income each year before federal and state tax is calculated. Roth contributions are from already-taxed dollars and don't change your taxes, but they reduce the surplus that would otherwise flow to your Taxable account. Contributions automatically stop at retirement age unless you set a different "Until age" override. If your contribution exceeds your available cash flow in a year, the simulator will still deposit the full amount and draw the gap from your other accounts using your normal withdrawal strategy.

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When will I run out of money?

The Longevity Risk chart uses Monte Carlo simulation to answer this. Prisma runs thousands of scenarios with randomized yearly returns based on your expected return and volatility assumptions. The result shows the probability that your portfolio survives to each age — so you can see, for example, that there is a 90% chance your money lasts to age 85, or a 50% chance it lasts to age 95. This gives a more realistic picture than a single deterministic projection.

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Is the senior tax deduction applied in projections?

Yes. Prisma applies the enhanced standard deduction for seniors (age 65+) as established under the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). This increased deduction reduces your taxable income in the years it applies and is reflected in your federal tax projections automatically.

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How are future tax brackets determined?

Prisma starts from 2025 federal tax brackets and adjusts them forward each year using your Spending Inflation Rate (set in Preferences, defaulting to 2.54%). Both bracket thresholds and the standard deduction grow at that rate — so a 22% bracket today will have higher dollar ceilings in year 10 of retirement. This matches how the IRS has historically adjusted brackets for inflation.

You can see which bracket you land in for each year in the Annual Cash Flows chart. The bracket shown reflects your income in that specific year after applying inflation-adjusted thresholds and the applicable standard deduction (including the enhanced senior deduction for ages 65+).

Note that Prisma does not model potential future legislative changes to tax rates or bracket structure — current-law rates are assumed to hold throughout retirement.

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How is "Amount to Heirs" calculated?

Amount to Heirs estimates the after-tax value your estate leaves to beneficiaries at the end of your retirement horizon. It starts with your total portfolio balance (across all accounts) and subtracts the estimated federal income taxes your heirs will owe on inherited traditional IRA funds.

Under the SECURE 2.0 Act, most non-spouse beneficiaries must fully distribute an inherited IRA within 10 years. Prisma models this by spreading the inherited IRA balance equally across 10 annual distributions, then computes the marginal federal tax on each distribution using your specified Heirs' Tax Rate — stacked on top of the income the heirs are assumed to already have at that bracket. The resulting 10-year tax total is subtracted from your portfolio balance.

Roth IRA and taxable brokerage accounts pass to heirs with no additional federal income tax, so only the traditional IRA portion carries a tax haircut. State taxes on inherited IRAs are not modeled. The figure is a planning estimate, not a legal or tax guarantee.